In issue 712 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we analysed the impact of the revised proposal by the US Trade Representative (USTR) to penalise Chinese shipping lines and non-Chinese shipping lines operating vessels built in China. We looked specifically at small independent niche carriers on the Transpacific, as the global carriers might have a larger exposure to this proposal, but their extensive and diverse fleet of vessels gives them a greater degree of flexibility to substitute Chinese-built vessels across their networks.

In 2025-Q1, the five Transpacific niche carriers operated 49 different vessels, of which only 14 were built in China. Furthermore, as vessels below 4,000 TEU are exempt from the fees, this leaves a very small subset of just 2 vessels that are built in China and are over 4,000 TEU and are thus subject to the vessel fees. This is shown in Figure 1.

The new USTR proposal will impact 1 vessel operated by Matson, and 1 operated by SM Line, representing 10% and 9% of their 2025-Q1 deployment on the Transpacific, and only 4% of the total vessels deployed on the Transpacific by the niche carriers in 2025-Q1. Presumably, both niche carriers would be able to replace their 1 vessel with one not built in China or alternatively spread the USTR fee for the 1 vessel across their fleet.

However, Hede Shipping is a Chinese carrier and subject to a separate fee simply for being a Chinese shipping line, and they are not eligible for the exemptions for vessels below 4,000 TEU. This means that if the proposal goes ahead, from October 2025, Hede Shipping will on average face a fee of 667,000 USD per voyage to the US, increasing to a fee of USD 1.9 Million per voyage in April 2028, when the fee is fully phased in. Effectively, this would likely result in Hede Shipping having to cease operations on the Transpacific into the US.

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 All quotes can be attributed to: Alan Murphy, CEO, Sea-Intelligence.
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