The pause in the US-China trade war, and the associated demand boom, has caused a scramble amongst shipping lines to inject capacity swiftly. On Asia-North America West Coast (NAWC), we are seeing capacity growth in excess of 30% Y/Y in 5 of the next 11 weeks.

If we aggregate it across June/July for Asia-NAWC, then in June, the lines are increasing capacity 12.8% compared to before the tariff pause, and in July, the capacity injection is increasing to 16.5% compared to the pre-pause situation. This is shown in Figure 1. Capacity has also ramped up sharply compared to just a week ago, with this injection of capacity equalling 397,000 TEU across the two months.

What is potentially more important, is the Y/Y growth also shown in Figure 1. In June/July, shipping lines are planning to offer approximately 18% more capacity Y/Y. It is of course an open question whether the tariff-induced volume surge will match this capacity injection. However, if it does, it can create a significant issue in the ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach (LA/LB).

If we – quite simplistically – assume that the 18% Y/Y capacity injection matches the volume surge going into the ports of LA/LB, then Figure 2 shows the projected laden import container handling in the ports of LA/LB in June/July. It also compares to the maximum monthly volume handled in 2024, as well as the largest monthly volume seen during the pandemic disruptions in 2021.

If the ports of LA/LB see an 18% Y/Y laden import growth, then the Port of Los Angeles will be faced with volumes in June which are almost at the level seen at the maximum in 2024, but in July 2025 they will face volumes significantly exceeding the pandemic-induced spike in 2021. The Port of Long Beach would see new volume handling records for both June and July.

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 All quotes can be attributed to: Alan Murphy, CEO, Sea-Intelligence.
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